alex_127 писал(а): ↑Сб апр 12, 2025 10:52 pm
BarBoss писал(а): ↑Сб апр 12, 2025 10:44 pm
Вы не в курсе исторической перспективы как решают проблему гос долга. Лягушке в кастрюле подымают температуру медленно но верно. Сегодняшний доллар стоит 4ц по сравнению с долларом 1925г. Это все что надо знать о траэктории процесса на будущее.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/nationa ... ts-3306287
Дипсик вам в помощь по экономике:
Why us debt can not be eaten away by inflation?
The U.S. national debt cannot simply be "eaten away" by inflation because of several key economic and structural reasons:
### **1. Most U.S. Debt is Inflation-Protected or Short-Term**
- **TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities):** A portion of U.S. debt adjusts with inflation, meaning the principal increases with CPI, preventing erosion.
- **Short-Term Debt:** Much of the debt is in short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-month to 5-year maturities), which are frequently refinanced at higher interest rates if inflation rises.
### **2. Inflation Increases Borrowing Costs**
- When inflation rises, **bond investors demand higher yields** to compensate for lost purchasing power.
- The U.S. must **roll over maturing debt at higher rates**, increasing future interest expenses (which are already a massive part of the budget).
### **3. The Dollar’s Global Role Limits Inflation’s Impact**
- The U.S. dollar is the **world’s reserve currency**, meaning foreign investors (who hold ~30% of U.S. debt) expect stability.
- If inflation spirals, **demand for Treasuries could drop**, forcing the U.S. to pay even higher rates or face a debt crisis.
### **4. Inflation Doesn’t Reduce Real Debt Burden If Nominal GDP Doesn’t Outpace It**
- Debt becomes easier to manage **only if nominal GDP grows faster than debt + interest costs**.
- If inflation is high but GDP growth is stagnant (stagflation), the **debt-to-GDP ratio worsens** (as seen in the 1970s).
### **5. Political & Economic Constraints**
- **Hyperinflation would destroy confidence** in the dollar, triggering capital flight and a financial crisis.
- The Fed’s **inflation target (2%)** and tools (rate hikes, QT) prevent runaway price increases.
### **Historical Example: Post-WWII Debt Reduction**
- The U.S. did inflate away some debt after WWII, but this worked because:
- **Interest rates were capped by the Fed.**
- **Economic growth was extremely strong.**
- **Global dollar alternatives didn’t exist.**
- Today, those conditions **don’t apply**.
### **Bottom Line**
Inflation can **theoretically** reduce debt burdens, but in practice:
**Mild inflation helps slightly** (if growth is strong).
**High inflation backfires** by spiking borrowing costs and destabilizing the economy.
The U.S. is more likely to manage debt via **growth, austerity, or financial repression** (keeping rates below inflation) than outright inflation erosion.
**Mild inflation helps slightly** (if growth is strong). 
**High inflation backfires** by spiking borrowing costs and destabilizing the economy.