Килькин писал(а): ↑Вт май 28, 2024 4:49 pm
Да, кровавый килькин таки согласен, что "окончательное решение вопроса" - это таки решение, нет народа - нет проблемы, мертвый тигр не укусит. Больше того, это весьма банальное и традиционное решение подобных вопросов, которое практиковалось тысячелетиями, спросите хотя бы
протоукровнеандертальцев.
Нужны ли нам такие решения сегодня, когда космические корабли бороздят просторы Большого Театра, может таки хотя бы попытаться придумать что-нибудь еще.
Ну или таки да, перестать притворяться, что мол гуманизм, цивилизация и прочая чушь, отбросить лицемерие и вернуться к чисто биологической концепции войны всех против всех.
Вот вам ваш совершенно про-русский дядя, которого якобы откопала скай, про украину. Ну, слово-в-слово те же аргументы, что у путина. Случайно? Может быть, может быть... Много букв, но стоит прочитать. Если не затошнит.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer
"2014 Crimean crisis
In 2014, Mearsheimer retrospectively criticized the geopolitical reorientation of the United States under Bill Clinton since 1995 due to its monopolistic and hegemonic orientation. With the intention of weakening the government of Russia, he said, NATO was planned to be extended to Russia's borders. Accordingly, in an article in Foreign Affairs in August 2014, he assigned the main blame for the outbreak of the conflict to the United States and its Western allies.[75]
Since the mid-1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement, and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion. For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's democratically elected and pro-Russian president—which he rightly labeled a "coup"—was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a peninsula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to destabilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West.
Mearsheimer argues that those who believe that Russia has only been waiting for opportunities to annex Ukraine are mistaken, and that the U.S. and European political elites had been caught unprepared by the events "because they attach little importance to the logic of realism in the 21st century and assume that European unity and freedom can be guaranteed by means of liberal principles such as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy."
Mearsheimer also thinks that in spite of being aware of Russia's rejectionist stance, a stance which is understandable given Russia's security interests, the U.S. would have pushed for the eastward expansion of the EU and NATO and supported the democratization of Ukraine anyway. Mearsheimer considers Putin's reaction understandable because Ukraine (as a non-aligned state) is "indispensable" as a buffer for Russia's security needs. Mearsheimer compared NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, led by NATO, and the planned inclusion of Ukraine into that alliance to a hypothetical scenario of there being a Chinese military alliance that planned to include countries in North America: "Imagine the American outrage if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico."[76] In the same article Mearsheimer points out a similarity between Russia's concerns about Ukraine joining NATO and the US concern over deployment of Soviet nuclear weapons in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962:
"Did Cuba have the right to form a military alliance with the Soviet Union during the Cold War? The United States certainly did not think so, and the Russians think the same way about Ukraine joining the West."[77]
Mearsheimer argued in a piece for Foreign Affairs that Russia's annexation of the Crimea was fueled by concerns that it would lose access to its Black Sea Fleet naval base at Sevastopol if Ukraine continued to move towards NATO and European integration. Mearsheimer concluded that US policy should shift to recognize Ukraine as a buffer state between NATO and Russia, rather than attempt to absorb Ukraine into NATO.[75] Mearsheimer's article provoked Michael McFaul and Stephen Sestanovich to publish their response in the November/December 2014 issue of Foreign Affairs.[78]
Mearsheimer sees NATO's eastward expansion as a dangerous provocation of Russia. He invokes George F. Kennan as one of the first critical admonishers who warned in 1998 of the danger of war as a result of eastward enlargement. Mearsheimer attributes the political mistakes to the lack of political realism or the great influence of the "liberal hegemony" school of thought in both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. The only sensible way out of the crisis, he said, is to soberly factor in Russia's security interests, like those of any other power. Ukraine, he said, must accept the role of buffer or bridge given to it by its geostrategic situation. Anything else, he said, was abstract and meaningless in terms of Realpolitik. The West's constructive cooperation with Russia is of great importance for solving important existing and upcoming problems and should not be put at risk, he said. In response to the Brookings Institution's 2015 recommendation to provide weapons to Ukraine to increase the cost of an attack to Putin,[79] Mearsheimer replied in The New York Times that the strategic importance is so great to Russia that it will continue the conflict at any cost, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons.[80] Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul counterargued in his Foreign Affairs response piece that in 2014, Russian foreign policy was not a reaction to the United States, but was based on the internal Russian dynamics.[78]
Politics researchers, such as Dr. Robert Person and Dr. Michael McFaul, are critical to Mearsheimer’s NATO arguments. They point out that Putin suggested Russia expanding its cooperation with and joining NATO in 2001 and in 2000, as well as other episodes of Russia-NATO cooperation, including Russia and NATO expanding their cooperation in 2010, thus voiding the argument of NATO being a threat to Russia.[81]
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
In his 25 September 2015 lecture "Why Is Ukraine the West's Fault?", Mearsheimer stated that the West was "leading Ukraine down the primrose path", that the Western powers were encouraging Ukraine to become part of the West despite their hesitancy to integrate Ukraine into NATO and the EU, that they were encouraging the Ukrainian government to pursue a hardline policy towards Russia, and that "the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked."[82] In the same lecture Mearsheimer declared: "If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try that."[82][83]
Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mearsheimer reiterated that NATO and the EU were largely to blame for the war in Ukraine. In an interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer stated: "I think all the trouble in this case really started in April 2008, at the NATO Summit in Bucharest, where afterward NATO issued a statement that said Ukraine and Georgia would become part of NATO. The Russians made it unequivocally clear at the time that they viewed this as an existential threat, and they drew a line in the sand. Nevertheless, what has happened with the passage of time is that we have moved forward to include Ukraine in the West to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia's border... NATO expansion is the heart of the strategy, but it includes E.U. expansion as well, and it includes turning Ukraine into a pro-American liberal democracy, and, from a Russian perspective, this is an existential threat." Mearsheimer says Ukraine's political leeway is determined by how it manages to strike a balance between Western orientation and consideration for Russian security interests. Mearsheimer does not deny Russia's aggression in this regard, but his criticism is directed at EU and NATO. "Given the West's talk about eventual NATO membership and association agreements with the EU, how were politicians in Ukraine to resist the appeal of eventual inclusion? But if they succumb to that temptation they put themselves at risk of Russia's wrath."[84]
In a subsequent interview in November 2022 with the same New Yorker journalist, Mearsheimer argued that since the beginning of the conflict Russia has not been interested in the conquest of all Ukraine, but only in the annexation of its south-eastern territories (the oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk). The main proof of this, Mearsheimer argued, was that if Putin had really intended to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, he would not have used an army consisting of only 190,000 soldiers. According to Mearsheimer, the bombings on Kyiv had and have the sole purpose of inducing the Ukrainian government and its Western allies to accept the recognition of the annexation to Russia of the four aforementioned territories.[85] Mearsheimer clarified further that Vladimir Putin is not interested in incorporating the western and central provinces of Ukraine into Russia, which are predominantly Ukrainian-speaking and would be "too difficult to manage", but rather only the eastern and southern provinces, which are predominantly Russian-speaking, and have a "long-standing grievance against the Kiev government".[86]
In an interview with C-SPAN in late March 2022, Mearsheimer has stated that he considers American involvement with the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine to be secondary in terms of geopolitical priorities to immediate concerns which he associates with the containment of threats to geopolitical stability being caused by contemporary Chinese geopolitics, which Mearsheimer considers as a more immediate threat to geopolitical concerns in the United States.[87] Mearsheimer debated the Russian invasion with Polish MEP Radoslaw Sikorski in May 2022. Sikorski identified Putin as the culprit in conducting the invasion of Ukraine while Mearsheimer argued that Putin is pursuing a realist geopolitical plan to secure Russian national interests in the presence of perceived threats from an expanding NATO.[88]
In an article that he wrote on his personal blog on Substack in June 2023, he posited that given the irreconcilable differences between Russia and Ukraine over territory and Ukraine's relationship with the West, the best possible outcome for the Ukraine war is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war, and the worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.[89]
In his June 16, 2022 speech at the European University Institute in Florence, Mearsheimer argued that joining NATO would decrease rather than increase the security of Sweden, and especially that of Finland, which has a long border with Russia. Thus, NATO membership is not in the best interests of these countries from the big political picture view.[90]"(с)